Penerapan Metode GARCH-Vine Copula untuk Estimasi Value at Risk (VaR) pada Portofolio
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
conditional copula-garch methods for value at risk of portfolio: the case of tehran stock exchange market
ارزش در معرض ریسک یکی از مهمترین معیارهای اندازه گیری ریسک در بنگاه های اقتصادی می باشد. برآورد دقیق ارزش در معرض ریسک موضوع بسیارمهمی می باشد و انحراف از آن می تواند موجب ورشکستگی و یا عدم تخصیص بهینه منابع یک بنگاه گردد. هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی کارایی روش copula-garch شرطی در برآورد ارزش در معرض ریسک پرتفویی متشکل از دو سهام می باشد و ارزش در معرض ریسک بدست آمده با روشهای سنتی برآورد ارزش د...
Assessing the VaR of a portfolio using D-vine copula based multivariate GARCH models
We develop Bayesian inference of a multivariate GARCH model where the dependence is introduced by a D-vine copula on the innovations. A D-vine copula is a special case of vine copulas which are a relatively new and very flexible concept to construct multivariate copulas. In particular it allows to model dependency between pairs of margins individually. In a simulation study and three real data ...
متن کاملEstimation of Value at Risk (VaR) Based On Lévy-GARCH Models: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange
This paper aims to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using GARCH type models with improved return distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) is an essential benchmark for measuring the risk of financial markets quantitatively. The parametric method, historical simulation, and Monte Carlo simulation have been proposed in several financial mathematics and engineering studies to calculate VaR, that each of ...
متن کاملValue-at-risk (var)
VALUE-AT-RISK Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures the worst expected loss under normal market conditions over a specific time interval at a given confidence level. As one of our references states: “VaR answers the question: how much can I lose with x% probability over a pre-set horizon” (J.P. Morgan, RiskMetrics–Technical Document). Another way of expressing this is that VaR is the lowest quantile of ...
متن کاملA Copula-GARCH Model of Conditional Dependencies: Estimating Tehran Market Stock Exchange Value-at-Risk
Modeling the dependency between stock market returns is a difficult task when returns follow a complicated dynamics. It is not easy to specify the multivariate distribution relating two or more return series. In this paper, a methodology based on fitting ARIMA, GARCH and ARMA-GARCH models and copula functions is applied. In such methodology, the dependency parameter can easily be rendered condi...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Jurnal Fourier
سال: 2018
ISSN: 2541-5239,2252-763X
DOI: 10.14421/fourier.2018.72.63-77